GLOBAL ECONOMIC SCENARIO
Financial Year (FY) 2019-20 was a challenging year for the global economy, recording its lowest growth of the decade at 2.4%, as an outcome of protracted trade disputes, reverse globalisation and a slowdown in the domestic investments. The widespread weakness in global trade and investments affected advanced markets such as the European markets as well as the emerging markets and developing economies. Manufacturing activities across the globe slowed down significantly and just as there were signs of stabilization of manufacturing output at lower levels, at the turn of the decade, the outbreak of COVID-19 led to economic disruption on an unprecedented scale.
The mid-October USA-China bilateral negotiations had helped to de-escalate trade tensions to an extent. Amidst improving economic data, growth in the United States has exhibited signs of peaking out. The UK continued to struggle with Brexit related challenges while other major economies like the European region, Japan and China faced intermittent deceleration, adding to the slowdown in the pace of global growth. Even as nations were coming to terms with slowing growth, a new threat emerged with the spread of the coronavirus pandemic, which is expected to cost the global economy $ 2.7 trillion (Bloomberg estimate), and is likely to push the global economy into a recession while undoing a large proportion of economic gains achieved over the last decade.